In today’s academic and public library environments, one key challenge librarians face is this:
“What books and resources should we buy next?”
What is Library Resource Forecasting?
Library resource forecasting simply means predicting what kind of resources (books, journals, digital media, etc.) a library should purchase or renew in the near future.
This includes questions like:
Which subject areas need more books?
Are certain genres or authors becoming more popular?
What materials are becoming outdated and underused?
How to balance physical vs digital collection?
Traditionally, this was done through:
- Manual observation.
- Feedback forms.
- Issuing logs from Library Management Software (LMS)
How RFID Helps in Forecasting Library Resources
RFID is already used in many libraries for:
- Book check-in/check-out
- Security (anti-theft gates)
- Inventory audits
- User self-service kiosks
1. Captures In - Library Usage :
Many books are picked up, browsed, and placed back on shelves without being issued. Traditional LMS can’t track this.
But RFID-enabled smart shelves or zone readers can:
Detect which books are being handled frequently.
Log repeated in-library movements of the same title.
Identify books that are looked at often but rarely borrowed (maybe because they are useful for quick reference).
Such data reveals user interest that doesn’t show up in issuing reports helping you identify “quietly popular” resources.2. Analysing Usage Trends Over Time with RFID :
One of the biggest advantages of RFID is that it doesn’t just track what’s happening now , it builds a history of usage over time. By analysing this long term data, libraries can spot meaningful trends and make smarter collection decisions.
What the data reveals:
Seasonal Demand:
Some books see spikes in usage during certain times especially around exams or assignment deadlines.
Emerging Topics:
A rise in interest in areas like Artificial Intelligence, climate change, gender studies, or mental health can be spotted early.
Resource Fatigue:
Books that were once popular but are now gathering dust can be identified and reconsidered.
What libraries can do with this insight:
- Add more copies or new editions of frequently accessed titles
- Replace worn out books that are still in high demand
- Rethink or reduce investment in low usage subjects
- Curate focused displays or reading lists based on trending topics
3. Supports Personalised Resource Planning Based on User Groups :
Improves Stock Rotation and Shelf Space Planning :
With RFID-supported shelf audits, libraries can see:
- Which sections remain untouched for long periods
- Which shelves are accessed most often
- Which books are being mis shelved regularly (indicating frequent handling)
This helps forecast not just what to buy, but also:
- What to relocate for better visibility
- What to withdraw or donate
- Which sections need expansion in physical space
Supports Evidence-Based Budget Allocation :
Justifying library budgets can be challenging especially when decisions are questioned by administrators or funding agencies. But RFID analytics offers a data-driven way to support your case. With detailed reports on which subjects are most frequently accessed, how often costly reference materials are used within the library, and what titles or authors are in high demand, librarians can clearly show where the money is going and why it’s needed. This kind of evidence is powerful when requesting budget approvals, proposing new purchases, or defending the need for expanding certain sections. Instead of relying on assumptions or outdated circulation data, libraries can present real usage insights helping avoid wasteful purchases and ensuring funds are spent where they’re truly needed.
Integrates with LMS for Smarter Ordering :
Modern RFID enabled systems don’t work in isolation they can be integrated with your existing Library Management System (LMS) to make collection development smarter and more responsive. When RFID movement logs are linked with LMS data, libraries can automatically generate purchase suggestions based on real-time usage not just borrowing statistics. For example, if certain books are constantly being handled or browsed but aren’t borrowed, the system can alert librarians about potential demand. It can also flag subjects that are frequently accessed but under stocked, helping you add more relevant titles in those areas. Some RFID setups can even assist in generating weeding reports identifying outdated or rarely used materials that could be removed. Additionally, if short-use books like dictionaries, manuals, or competitive exam guides are frequently picked up, the system may recommend purchasing multiple copies to reduce crowding or waiting time.
Real-World Scenario: How RFID Insights Can Transform a University Library :
Imagine a university library that installs RFID not just for issuing and returning books, but also for tracking shelf usage. Over the course of a semester, the system captures interesting patterns . For example ,
- Machine learning books are frequently handled especially around lab exam weeks
- The “start-up” and “entrepreneurship” section shows high shelf activity, even though borrowing is low
- Older Electrical Engineering reference books remain untouched, occupying shelf space
Using this data, the library takes informed action:
Adds updated and in-demand titles in AI and machine learning
Creates a startup focused resource corner near the reading area
Withdraws outdated Electrical Engineering volumes, reallocating the budget to student-preferred subjects
The Outcome?
The library’s collection becomes more relevant, circulation improves, and students find resources they actually want all thanks to silent signals captured by RFID, beyond what traditional issuing logs can reveal.